Why the Rules-Based World Order Is Breaking Down
BLUF: The post–World War II global order depended on powerful countries enforcing shared rules even when it was inconvenient. That enforcement has become inconsistent, pushing the world toward a more fragmented, power-driven system.
When rules rely on power to function, shifts in power inevitably change how—or whether—the rules apply.
What the Rules-Based World Order Was
After World War II, global stability rested on a set of institutions, norms, and agreements designed to reduce conflict and promote trade. These rules worked largely because leading powers—especially the United States—were willing to enforce them, even at economic or political cost to themselves. The system was never perfectly fair or universal, but it was broadly predictable.
Why the System Is Breaking Down
The enforcement of global rules has weakened. Major powers increasingly prioritize national advantage over shared norms, using trade, finance, technology access, sanctions, and security guarantees as tools of leverage. Institutions still exist, but compliance has become selective. The result is not chaos, but declining reliability.
Why Leaders Are Now Saying This Out Loud
In the mid-2020s, senior political and economic leaders began publicly acknowledging what had long been discussed privately: the old assumptions no longer hold. These statements matter less for who says them than for what they reveal—an emerging consensus that planning for a return to the previous system is no longer realistic.
This Has Happened Before
Global orders tend to erode gradually, then suddenly. Similar transitions followed the decline of British naval dominance in the early 20th century and the institutional fatigue of the late Cold War. In each case, rules weakened not because they were abandoned overnight, but because the power willing to uphold them diminished or changed priorities.
What This Means for Strong Countries
For major powers, the erosion of universal rules normalizes explicit power politics. Economic and security policies merge, and leverage becomes central. The upside is flexibility; the risk is overreach. Excessive coercion accelerates fragmentation and encourages even close partners to hedge rather than align.
What This Means for Medium Powers
Medium-sized countries are the most exposed—and the most capable of shaping outcomes. Alone, they lack leverage. Together, they can still set standards, coordinate supply chains, and provide stability. Their strategy shifts from universalism to coalition-building, resilience, and selective alignment.
What This Means for Small and Poor Countries
For weaker states, universal protection can no longer be assumed. Institutions may help, but they will not reliably shield against pressure. Governments face harder choices: align with blocs, specialize strategically, or risk marginalization. Competition among larger powers can create opportunities, but only with deliberate strategy.
How Global Order Is Fragmenting
Rather than one global system, multiple overlapping orders are emerging: security blocs, trusted-partner trade networks, fragmented financial systems, and value-aligned regulatory regimes. Cooperation persists, but it is conditional, regional, and interest-driven rather than universal.
The Core Takeaway
The world is not moving toward disorder, but toward plural orders. Stability will depend less on universal rules and more on credible coalitions, shared interests, and the capacity to enforce commitments within smaller groups.
Go deeper
Extension ideas
- Compare the post-WWII order with previous global systems (Pax Britannica, etc.).
- Map how different regions are forming their own economic and security blocs.
- Analyze case studies of rule enforcement: when it worked, when it failed, and why.
Research questions
- What makes a coalition credible enough to enforce rules within its sphere?
- How do medium powers coordinate effectively without a single hegemon?
- What role can technology play in creating new forms of global coordination?
Related topics
- What Is a Rules-Based International Order?
- Great Power Competition Explained
- How Global Alliances Are Changing
Sources (starter set)